Democrats Growing More Optimistic About Jon Tester Beating Tim Sheehy

Democrats are growing more confident about the prospect of Montana Senator Jon Tester’s reelection.
A three-term incumbent and Montana’s only congressional Democrat since 2007, Tester’s poll numbers against Republican Tim Sheehy were bottoming out in the summer and he was considered the Democratic senator most likely to lose a reelection bid.
Support for Tester appears to have bounced in recent weeks amid growing controversy over the origins of a gunshot wound Sheehy suffered.
Sheehy, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has claimed throughout his campaign that he suffered a gunshot wound in his arm in 2012 from friendly fire while serving as a Navy SEAL in Afghanistan.
However, in a recent interview with The Washington Post, park ranger Kim Peach claimed Sheehy shot himself in the arm on a family trip to Glacier National Park in Montana in 2015.
Newsweek has contacted Tester by email and Sheehy via his campaign website for comment.
Tester’s ratings in a state that will almost certainly vote for Trump appeared to be bottoming out over the summer. In September, the Cook Political Report changed its predictions in the Montana Senate election from “toss up” to “lean Republican.”
And according to RealClearPolitics, Sheehy has been beating Tester in all polls since July.
However, Democrats believe recent speculation over Sheehy’s gunshot wound appeared to have dented his prospects of winning.
In a recent interview with Megyn Kelly, Sheehy failed to clearly explain the incident.
Ads for Tester have since accused Sheehy of lying about the gunshot wound and calling him a “fake cowboy.”
The Democrats’ hopes of holding onto control of the U.S. Senate largely hinge on Montana. If Tester wins and Vice President Kamala Harris beats Trump, Democrats have a strong chance of retaining their majority.
Republicans need to flip only two seats to get back a Senate majority. Given that the West Virginia seat seems likely to go to Republican Governor Jim Justice, Montana and Sheehy seem like the best chance the GOP has of reclaiming control.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely voters in late October found Sheehy with a 4-point lead over Tester, 50 percent to 46 percent. Sheehy’s lead was outside of the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Speaking about how tight the race has become, former Democratic Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer told nonprofit, nonpartisan news outlet NOTUS: “I would say flip a coin, and then call it heads or tails before it hits your hand. And that’s how this thing is going to end.”